Software Development Effort Estimation: Why does it fail and how can we improve it?

Dear CSI newsletter subscriber,

We are delighted to have Professor Magne Jørgensen visiting us from the Simula Research Lab in Norway. Magne is a world authority on effort estimation - an area I know is of intense interest to many of you. If you don't know how to estimate effort well, you suffer from cost over- runs or being outbid in tenders. Magne has agreed to give a CSI Cafe talk on this important area, which you are invited to. Details are as follows:

Software Development Effort Estimation: Why does it fail and how can we improve it?
Magne Jørgensen University of Oslo and Simula Research Laboratory

4pm Thursday 25th March
The University of Auckland, Department of Computer Science, Seminar Room 303.279
Drinks and nibbles will follow the talk

Abstract: Effort estimates of software development work are on average about 30% too low and about 70% of the developers think their development skills are above average. The lack of realistic effort estimates leads to poor project plans, dissatisfied clients, poor software quality and lack of company profit. The presentation summarizes research on the underlying (to some extent psychological) reasons for the tendency towards over-optimistic effort estimates and evidence-based methods on how to achieve higher degree of realism in the estimation work. The presentation also include methods for improvement of assessment of the uncertainty of the effort estimates, which is important input in the risk management of software projects. Finally, the presentation include results on the bidding processes, such as why companies tend to win bidding rounds only when they shouldn’t (“the winner’s curse”).

Bio: Magne Jørgensen has extensive industry experience as a software developer, project leader and manager. He is now professor in software engineering at the University of Oslo and Simula Research Laboratory (Norway). He has published many research articles on software cost estimation and been responsible for cost estimation training and improvement in several software companies. Download his work (estimation guidelines, psychology of effort estimation, assessment of the uncertainty of effort estimates, etc.) from: http://simula.no/people/magnej/bibliography

To assist with catering, could you please register here.

Looking forward to seeing you there

John Hosking
Director, Centre for Software Innovation